Instead of going in chronological order like I normally do, I am going to follow the bracket order, WITH PREDICTIONS:
CLASS L
(17) Cheshire @ (1) #9 Newtown @ 430pm
-Cheshire is the only lower seed to win their play-in game and they may pull the upset, according to seeding, in this one too. The actual number one team in Class L is up for debate (Newtown's SWC schedule is just very easy) and although Newtown would be in the top five, or at least top seven, the number one team should definitely be from the FCIAC. On the other side, Cheshire's seed is so low because they play in the SCC where they lost twice to Prep and once to Guilford, then they played and lost three CCC games to its top three teams, Conard, Simsbury and Glastonbury, and they are the defending Class L Champions so they got everyone's best, especially in their out-of-conference games against New Canaan and Bay Shore (NY). The goal is just to make the tournament and anything can happen from there so at 8-8, .500, they did just that and took out Danbury on Saturday. Newtown played Friday when they won the SWC Championship 12-7 over New Fairfield so Cheshire doesn't have much of an advantage there. My key to the game will be Cheshire's goalie, Will Devine; if he plays well they will win this one.
(9) Hall @ (8) #10 Simsbury @ 530pm
-CCC enemies, these two teams actually did not meet this regular season. Hall went undefeated in April, beating sub-par and mediocre at best opponents. They lost four of their next five games to Hand, Glastonbury, Simsbury and Southington. They had a win over 4-12 Northwest Catholic in there. They finished the season on a high note, possibly with some divine help, as they handed Stonington their only loss of the regular season (they beat Guilford 4-2 but dropped the ECC title game to East Lyme 6-11) 12-11 in OT and then were 14 seconds from losing to Conard before rain canceled the game and Hall won the make-up 14-13 on 5/25, their last game. Simsbury has been a lot more consistent at being good as they only lost four games all season. To start, they dropped three of their first four: Joel Barlow, Xavier and Hand (win over 10-8 South Windsor). Then they won 11 in a row including Brien McMahon, Cheshire Conard (in a row after the Hand loss), Guilford, Hall (12-10), Southington and a 20-2 blowout of Farmington before losing their last game of the regular season 5-8 at Glastonbury. However, they avenged that loss six days later in the CCC West Championship game back at Glastonbury, 12-10! You can find my pick at the bottom of all the Class L games.
(13) Southington @ (4) #4 Fairfield Prep @ 430pm
-Exact same first round match-up and seeds as last year for these two teams (the only thing different is Prep won the SCC this year while they came in 2nd last year). I'd go with the same winner since Prep has only lost one game in-state and it was to #3 Greenwich. The Jesuits did beat Glastonbury by five goals, who beat Southington by six, just for reference. Southington has talent, they just got a bad draw in the first round with Prep. The Blue Knights other losses this season have been to Conard, Simsbury, Fairfield Ludlowe (a 9-7 team from the FCIAC), Xavier (lost 2-14 to Prep), Cheshire (lost 2-12, 6-11 and 1-11 to Prep).
(12) #3 Greenwich @ (5) Glastonbury @ 430pm
-More quality teams in the Class L tournament and much like the first game, this could turn out to be a huge upset according to the seeding. I feel bad for Glastonbury as they are a very good team from the CCC that lost their focus in the CCC West Championship and lost it to Simsbury and now they caught a bad break in the Class L tournament by getting Greenwich first round. Greenwich's record, and thus seed, is so low because of their out-of-state schedule (1-4) and conference, the FCIAC. They have the marquee wins of Ridgefield 8-7 and Fairfield Prep 10-4 but later lost to Ridgefield 10-5 in the FCIAC tournament semifinals. Their other two losses were conference stalwarts Darien and Wilton but both are in Class M. Glastonbury is 0-3 against FCIAC opponents, losing to Wilton, Staples (8-5 and 14-7 wins for Greenwich) and Brien McMahon. This should be a good game but I don't see the actual upset happening.
(15) South Windsor @ (2) #7 Staples (Westport) @ 430pm
-South Windsor was the number one seed in the CCC East but they weren't in the top five of the conference as a whole, and Staples may have been the eight seed in the FCIAC tournament but that just shows how deep the conference is and puts to rest any argument about it not being the best conference for lacrosse. Staples only losses this season are Greenwich, Ridgefield and Brien McMahon, other Class L teams yes but still better than any team South Windsor played this season, just like the FCIAC teams Staples beat this year. The best barometer is that Staples beat Glastonbury 12-2 and Glastonbury beat South Windsor 9-3. South Windsor was even upset by Windsor 5-6 in OT of the CCC East Championship, their worst loss all season.
(10) Hamden @ (7) #8 Brien McMahon (Norwalk) @ 430pm
-The seedings may be close but I don't expect the game to be so I will try to keep the write-up short like I did for the above mismatch as well. Hamden's 12-4 record looks impressive but they beat up on the lower end of the SCC and some other below-.500 teams. For example, they earned the 7 seed in the SCC tournament but had lost 9-12 to 6 seed Branford, 8-10 to 5 seed Xavier, didn't play the top four teams in the conference (Hand, Guilford, Cheshire and Prep) and ended up losing to Cheshire 3-15. Brien McMahon was the 7 seed in the FCIAC and they beat teams head and shoulders above the ones Hamden even played. For example, McMahon started off their regular season with an 18-3 win over Branford and Hamden ended theirs with a 9-12 loss to Brandford.
(14) Conard @ (3) Xavier (Middletown) @ 430pm
-Don't sleep on Conard right here. Although Xavier has the potential to be one of the best teams in the state, they also could get upset by a Conard team modeled for the playoffs. The Chieftains have an exceptional goalie that keeps them in every game and an offense that scores just enough to win against most teams. Offenses have to play their best to score on Coanrd's goalie and Xavier will need to score a lot because Conard's offense will be pumped for three main reasons. One, they were left out of the CCC tournament (Simsbury and Glastonbury were just better), they got the bitter taste of 13-14 loss to Hall out of their mouth by rolling over New Milford 11-4 on Saturday while Xavier hasn't played in over a week (0-16 Wilbur Cross doesn't count) when they fell 9-11 in a close one to Hand, and don't think the Conard attackmen have forgotten what they did to Xavier in hockey, pulling a big upset on the ice back in the winter. The same thing could happen here if the Falcons don't come out ready to play; pick is at the bottom of the Class L games.
(11) Norwich Free Academy @ (6) #2 Ridgefield @ 430pm
-Another easy pick/blowout waiting to happen. NFA gets their 10-5 record from a very weak ECC where they couldn't even beat Ledyard (Stonington is not a bad loss). Their best win is splitting with East Lyme, the eventual conference champion by way of an upset of Stonington, 8-7 in win but then a 4-16 loss exactly one month later. Ridgefield, on the other hand, is one of the favorites to win Class L and for good reason: they were seeded 3rd in the FCIAC tournament and blew out Brien McMahon, stepped up big time to get a convincing 10-5 win over Greenwich and they gave Darien a good game in the championship game, a 7-10 loss for the Tigers! Expect Ridgefield to still be firing on all cylinders as they come into this game, at home.
PREDICTIONS: Cheshire by one goal over Newtown; Simsbury over Hall by about three goals; Fairfield Prep is on fire coming off the SCC Championship game so I see them winning by at least ten goals over Southington; Greenwich bounced back from their 5-10 loss to Ridgefield in the FCIAC semifinals with a 16-4 win over Stamford in the play-in game so I think they take down Glastonbury by 8 to 10 gaols; Staples by at least ten goals over South Windsor, at least; Brien McMahon by a blowout over Hamden; home turf gives Xavier enough of an advantage to edge Conard by two goals again; Ridgefield by more than ten over Norwich Free Academy.
CLASS M
(16) Notre Dame-West Haven @ (1) #1 Darien @ 430pm
-ND-WH used a three-game win streak at the end of the season over sub-par teams (West Haven, North Haven, Trumbull) to make the tournament and they did hand 13-5 Hamden a loss earlier in the season, and push Branford to two overtimes and an injured Hand to overtime but both were losses and early in the season. The Green Knights don't stand a chance in this one, especially since they're playing nationally ranked Darien, undefeated in-state, led by Under Armour All-American and senior captain Eric Parnon along with Duke-bound junior Case Matheis on offense. That's really all you need to know and I'm afraid to even think what the score will be; scroll down to see.
(9) Fairfield Ludlowe @ (8) Masuk @ 5pm
-This is a tricky one to predict. Ludlowe was just out of the Top 8 in the FCIAC, which means they are still very good at 9-7 in that conference. They only lost to Staples 10-11 in overtime, they beat Norwalk, a team very similar to them, 11-10 in OT the next game, they beat Conard and Southington from the CCC and they beat St. Joseph 14-13, another FCIAC team with a lot of talent. Also, they have the experience of playing a lot of the top teams in the FCIAC/state, Darien twice, Ridgefield, Brien McMahon, New Canaan, Wilton and Staples. Masuk is a good team from the SWC but that makes them just less than a team from the middle of the FCIAC, like Ludlwoe (or St. Joseph or Norwalk). Masuk was the 5 seed in the SWC tournament behind Weston, New Fairfield, Joel Barlow and Newtown. Other than those four teams, Masuk lost to Brien McMahon 1-18 (Ludlowe only lost 7-8) and Westhill, a team on the lower end of the middle of the FCIAC with a 7-10 record.
(13) Guilford @ (4) RHAM @ 430pm
-RHAM's "special" season ends right here as they fell victim to seeding and got matched up with a Guilford team whose 8-8 record is a product of their SCC schedule: splits with Cheshire and Hand and losses to Prep twice and Xavier don't help. Plus, the Indians lost to ECC Champion East Lyme 5-6 in overtime in their first game and then 2-4 to ECC #1 seed and then undefeated Stonington in their last game of the regular season. They did beat Ledyard, ND-WH and their loss to CCC East Champion Simsbury can be mitigated with their 11-10 OT win over Joel Barlow for other out-of-conference games. RHAM dropped a bad game to 3-12 Tolland and then their other three losses were mediocre CCC teams South Windsor, Windsor and Hall. The Sachems had no real signature win on the season and will be leaving the Class M tournament quite early for their 12-4 record.
(12) Windsor @ (5) #5 Wilton @ 430pm
-CCC West Champions Windsor better have enjoyed last Thursday's 6-5 OT win over 1 seed South Windsor to get revenge for an 8-10 loss during the season and capture the championship because when they go to Wilton on Wednesday things will probably get ugly. Wilton is one of the best teams in the FCIAC/state and they almost upset number one Darien in the FCIAC semifinals (6-9 loss) so they are on the short list of teams that can possibly upset Darien in the Class M tournament. I hate to say it but even if Wilton "overlooks" Windsor or doesn't play 100% they will still win this one; expect the back-ups to get some playing time. For reference, Wilton beat Glastonbury 12-5 and Glastonbury beat Windsor 2-15.
(15) Brookfield @ (2) East Lyme @ 430pm
-Brookfield may have been the 7 seed in the SWC tournament but East Lyme won the the ECC tournament by upsetting the favorite, Stonington. East Lyme also only lost three games all year, 5-6 to Coanrd, 7-8 to Norwich Free Academy, and 9-12 to Daniel Hand. They beat NFA 16-4 the second time, Guilford 6-5 in OT, Ledyard twice and South Windsor. Brookfield lost to seeds 1-6 in the SWC (Newtown, Joel Barlow, New Fairfield, New Milford, Masuk, Weston) and Brien McMahon and Norwalk from the FCIAC. They did not beat a team with more than six wins or that was even close to .500; the combined record of the eight teams that they beat was 27-102. The winner plays Hand or New Canaan, both teams that would be either of these two.
(10) Daniel Hand @ (7) #6 New Canaan @ 6pm
-Oh wow, this really sucks for Hand as they are one of the top 15/20 teams in the entire state but their deflated record from their SCC schedule and New Canaan's from their out-of-state schedule has these two lacrosse powerhouses meeting in the first round. Hand lost to Cheshire twice (by 1 goals then by 2), Prep three times (took them to OT in the SCC semifinals), split with Guilford, lost to Glastonbury and, a little surprisingly, Joel Barlow. They have plenty of quality wins though with Simsbury, Xavier twice, East Lyme, Hall and Ledyard (if that counts). New Canaan is just a lot better though as they grabbed the five seed in the FCIAC after wins over Wilton, Brien McMahon in three overtimes, Fairfield Ludlowe and St. Joseph. They also beat Cheshire and a good John Jay team from NY. An upset is not impossible though as New Canaan lost to Wilton 5-12 the second time around in the playoffs while Hand played better in their conference tournament and almost upset (they were literally one shot away) a team I have ranked higher than New Canaan, Fairfield Prep!
(14) Norwalk @ (3) New Fairfield @ TIME CHANGE 7pm
-Very similar to the Ludlowe vs Masuk game except that New Fairfield is better than Masuk, they came in second in the SWC tournament after being seeded third but upsetting a very good Joel Barlow team, and Norwalk isn't as good as Ludlowe, but only by an overtime goal on 4/12. New Fairfield only lost three games in the regular season, Newtown, Joel Barlow and Rye HE from NY which also beat New Canaan and Brien McMahon while Norwalk may have gone 8-8 but in those eight wins is one over SWC 7 seed Brookfield 14-3 (the same score New Fairfield beat them by) and Newtown 13-12. They may not be the elite of the FCIAC but I still think Norwalk can beat even decent teams like New Fairfield, the question is will they (it's still a big upset).
(11) Branford @ (6) Avon @ 430pm
-Now this one is also a little difficult to pick because neither team is actually that good. Branford comes from the SCC where they did fairly well grabbing the six seed behind Xavier, Hand, Guilford, Cheshire, and Fairfield Prep. They lost to those five teams, Hall and Brien McMahon on the season while beating the 7 seed Hamden and 8 seed Shelton, Notre Dame-West Haven in two overtimes, the rest of the bottom of the SCC, and Old Saybrook and Old Lyme from the Shoreline. Avon comes from the NCCC but lost 4-5 to Somers in its championship game. They also lost to Somers twice int eh regular season, Coanrd 1-12, Southington 7-11 and surprisingly to Granby Memorial 5-6 early in the season (they won 15-9 then 10-9 later in the season). Avon lacks a big win just like Branford, bringing me back to how hard it will be to pick a winner here.
PREDICTIONS: Darien could beat ND-WH by 20, they did it to Fairfield Warde (20-0) and they're not afraid to blow teams out (21-2 to Danbury and 20-3 to Norwalk, both 8-8 teams while ND-WH is 7-8 in a much worse conference) but I think they will rest most of their players once they're up and the back-ups will restrain themselves to keep it around but within a 20-goal victory; FCIAC much > SWC so Fairfield Ludlowe over Masuk by 6 to 8 goals; Guilford over RHAM by 1 to 11 goals (they are so inconsistent); Wilton by at least ten goals over Windsor; Daniel Hand versus New Canaan could go either way as you really never know what you're going to get from Hand (are you gonna get the team that took Prep two and a half minutes into overtime or the one that let Guilford score 17 goals to only win by three) but I give New Canaan the edge at home and Hand doesn't play good enough defense to stop a skilled FCIAC offense like New Canaan's...New Canaan by one (to three) goal(s) over Hand; Norwalk and New Fairfield is such a close match-up that again it could either way but since it is my job to pick I will take Norwalk by two goals over New Fairfield; call it SCC bias but strength of schedule has to be worth something (Branford-27, Avon-44) so I'll take Branford by two or three goals over Avon.
CLASS S
(9) Waterford @ (8) Old Saybrook @ 430pm
-Old Saybrook, from the Shoreline Conference, has only one win in their 9-7 record over a team that is even .500 but they did beat 7-8 Notre Dame-West Haven. Waterford is from the ECC and they are 9-7 and have one win over a team above .500 too; 11-10 over 10-6 Norwich Free Academy at a neutral site on 5/19. Old Saybrook's "big" win is 6-3 over Waterford on 4/30. Although that was a while ago, I still see the Rams moving on to face undefeated NCCC Champion (1) Somers.
(12) St. Joseph @ (5) Weston @ 430pm
-I have been saying all year that St. Joseph is really a good team but they just aren't quite yet on the level of the FCIAC powerhouses they must play year in and year out. Weston is a good team from the SWC though as they earned the 4 seed, beat Masuk 14-6 in the quarterfinals and almost upset 1 seed Newtown in the semifinals (5-5 at half, down one after three and lost 9-11). St. Joseph lost 7-17 to Newtown but beat the Norwalk team that beat Newtown and I'm picking to beat New Fairfield as well.
(10) Suffield @ (7) Granby Memorial @ 430pm
-Granby lost to Suffield 6-13 in their second game of the season but just a couple weeks ago they beat them 15-10, as both teams play in the NCCC. Granby almost upset Avon in the NCCC tournament too, falling 9-10 at Avon. Suiffield started the season strong, with four straight wins, but lost to all their quality opponents after that with the exception of a big 12-9 win over Windsor and 12-16 frustrating loss to 4-12 Northwest Catholic.
(11) Ellington @ (6) Lewis Mills @ 430pm
-Ellington is also from the NCCC and Lewis Mills is independent but the two teams played each other in the regular season. Ellington won 14-7 on their home turf but played a tougher schedule than Mills, resulting in their 8-8 record compared to Mills at 10-5. Surprisingly, both teams lost to another independent team, 6-10 Housatonic Valley (Mills beat them 5-6 but then lost 1-12 and Ellington lost 6-11).
PREDICTIONS: Old Saybrook over Waterford; St. Joseph over Weston in an extremely close game; Granby Memorial over Suffield; Ellington over Lewis Mills.
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