CLASS L
(8) #10 Simsbury @ (1) #9 Newtown @ 4pm
-My nine versus ten match-up and the CCC West Champion versus the SWC Champion. I did have Cheshire pulling the upset on Newtown not because of any lack of talent on Newtown but because Cheshire had a very good team and they were the defending Class L Champions. Along the same lines, I think Simsbury has the talent to pull the upset here, which I will say is an upset based on Newtown's consistency to beat good teams. However, Simsbury beat Cheshire and they beat Brien McMahon, who killed the same Norwalk team, 17-6, that beat Newtown 13-12. Simsbury did lose to Joel Barlow, who Newtown beat 9-5, but it was the first game of the season and Barlow lost to the same Guilford team that Simsbury beat 7-4 so you can't make much out of those comparisons. The game will certainly be an interesting and my pick is at the bottom of the Class L previews.
(12) #3 Greenwich @ (4) #4 Fairfield Prep @ 3pm
-I do have Greenwich ranked ahead of Fairfield Prep, but only by one spot. I know there are a lot of quality games on the day, heck they are playoff games between the best teams in the state, but I don't think there will be one better than this. Greenwich is back and forth between the second and third best team in the FCIAC with Ridgefield but I think Ridgefield's 10-5 win in the FCIAC tournament semfinals settled things and the Cardinals have settled for third. Regardless, they have been picked by the most people to win the Class L tournament and for good reason: David Dickson, Andrew Feeney, Alex Moeser, Eric Foote and Stephen Dodd on offense, Adam Sands on defense and Dan Feeney in goal have been solid all season. Prep is once again the SCC Champion and their team this year is a balanced offense where a slew of players rack up points like Kevin Brown, Connor Kelly, Matt Brophy, David White, Harry Cotter, Tim Edmonds and the occasional Tyler Cox while Mike Seelye gets the job done in front of the cage. We've come a long way from May 5th...
(7) #8 Brien McMahon @ (2) #7 Staples (Wesport) @ 3pm
-On May 3rd, Wesport hosted one of the biggest FCIAC games of the regular season as Brien McMahon took down Staples 10-7 to prove their place among the FCIAC elite this season. However, since they Staples had filled out the better resume and earned one spot higher on my ranking than the Senators from Norwalk. Staples won 7 of their next 8 games while McMahon has gone 5-3 since that point. Confidence and the ability to play well in big-game situations are the keys to winning an evenly matched game like this and I think my pick will surprise a lot of people. This game has the potential to be better than the Fairfield Prep and Greenwich one so attending either one is a great idea.
(14) Conard @ (6) #2 Ridgefield @ 430pm
-Conard has maybe the best goalie in Class L, John Catodicasa, but Kyle Weber and Danny Kycia (who also upset Xavier in hockey) were the real reason the Chieftains were able to upset Xavier in the first round. Ridgefield's Adam Winne will be having none of the same on his home turf and once Andrew Buckanavage, Aidan Scott, Eric Scala, Sean Wilkinson and Matt Hrvatin starting getting to Catodiscasa things could get ugly in this one.
PREDICTIONS: Trevor Gallagher is looking better than ever, Simsbury over Newtown by three goals; Greenwich beat Fairfield Prep 10-4 on 5/5 but that game was in Greenwich while this one will be in Fairfield and heavily attended by the Bomb Squad (Prep's cheering section) plus its the playoffs and the Jesuits have already returned to being SCC Champions so I'm going with Fairfield Prep by one goal over Greenwich; I know this will go against what I just did in the last pick but taking the team one seed lower but I am following suit and picking the loser from the regular season: Staples by one to five goals over Brien McMahon; Yes, Conard has an amazing goalie but Ridgefield has an amazing team so I expect a ten goal victory for Ridgefield over Conard.
CLASS M
(9) Fairfield Ludlowe @ (1) #1 Darien @ 3pm
-17-4 on the road and 17-1 at home, the scores Darien beat Fairfield Ludlowe by twice already this season. There is nothing more I need to say except they know what they have to do and they will go out and do it. We will see the Blue Wave in the semifinals next Wednesday, June 8th.
(13) Guilford @ (5) #5 Wilton @ 2pm
-About as unevenly matched up Guilford was with RHAM is how uneven they are with Wilton as well, except on the losing side. Guilford is the inconsistent headache to every sports writer and they could shock people but New Canaan would have been a better match-up for them because Wilton almost upset the season-long number one team, Darien, in the FCIAC semifinals so they get up for playoffs games and should be finding the back of the net early and often in this one.
(7) #6 New Canaan @ (2) East Lyme @ 3pm
-I don't mean to give away all my picks in the explanations but again, I see a huge mis-match here. East Lyme is having a great season; the only problem is that great season is in the ECC. In fact, they are the ECC Champions after upsetting one-loss Stonington in the Championship game and they now posses an impressive 15-3 record. Against opponents form other good conferences, East Lyme beat Guilford 6-5 in OT of the first game of the season but lost to Daniel Hand from the SCC, 12-9. From the CCC, they beat South Windsor 14-6 but lost to the much better Conard 5-6 in their second game of the season. They did win an out-of-state game against Moses Brown form Rhode Island Division I but they are a 6-9 team and East Lyme did lose to Norwich Free Academy, a 10-7 from their own conference. If you don't know how impressive New Canaan's season has been thus far, search for "New Canaan lacrosse" (the lacrosse part if very important) on my blog and you will see, or even just check out my preview of their game last round. They have done well in the best conference for lacrosse, the FCIAC, and they are poised to continue to do well in the Class M state tournament.
(11) Branford @ (3) New Fairfield @ 7pm
-If this game was taking place a week ago, I would make a pretty good case for Branford to pull the upset. However, the fact that it is an upset still remains and after first round results from the state tournament, I'm leaning towards New Fairfield. Not only did they surprise me by beating Norwalk but they also won by a decent margin of four goals, 15-11. On the other hand, Branford got taken to overtime by Avon that is quite good, but not better than Branford, as they escaped with a 14-13 win. The problem for Branford will be playing defense to limit New Fairfield's score but I do think the Hornets offense will pick it up enough to give them a chance.
PREDICTIONS: Darien by AT LEAST ten over Fairfield Ludlowe; Wilton by one to ten goals over Guilford, just like I said for Guilford last round; is New Canaan over East Lyme but eight or more goals too high of a prediciton? I don't think so; New Fairfield by six (to eight) goals over Branford.
CLASS S
(8) Old Saybrook @ (1) Somers @ 3pm
-I dont' want to say that Old Saybrook doesn't stand a chance in this one but the Rams squeaked by Waterford and now they are facing the 18-0, division one athlete laden, Somers Spartans! They have a chance I guess but it is very slim and involves a strategy similar to the one they employed in their Waterford win, that is constant scoring to match your opponent and then a few key stops to take the lead and win. No team has scored more than 9 goals on the Spartans this year and they have held opponents to five goals or less in three fourths of their games (12 of 18)! Oh yeah, they are the NCCC Champions and beat two teams that beat Old Saybrook (Old Lyme and Morgan).
(12) St. Joseph @ (4) Ledyard @ 4pm
-I'm not giving away my pick in this one, you're going to have to scroll to the end to see it, but I will make the case for each team. First off, this is probably the best Class S game on the day, Ellington @ Joel Barlow could end up being better but I don't think it will be. That being said, here is why: Ledyard, at 11-6, is the favorite as they went 11-5 in the regular season (4-6 loss to East Lyme in ECC semifinals) only losing to East Lyme, Stonington twice, Guilford and Daniel Hand. They beat Old Saybrook and Norwich Free Academy and then teams sorely under .500. However, in my mind, St. Joseph, the 9-8 team from the FCIAC should be favored. They beat Norwalk, Westhill and Danbury during the regular season and showed the world the talent I saw in them when they had close games with the elite FCIAC teams (13-14 loss to Fairfield Ludlowe, 9-10 to Staples, 7-9 to Brien McMahon, 6-10 to New Canaan, 6-11 to Greenwich and 13-19 to Wilton) when they beat Weston 8-6 in the first round of the Class S state tournament. Can they take it a step farther and beat the four seed and same record (as Weston at the time, 11-6) from the ECC? We shall see.
(7) Granby Memorial @ (2) Stonington @ 3pm - FUN FACT: These two teams are approximately 70 miles apart!
-Granby may have been able to beat NCCC foe Suffiled by five goals as I predicted but Stonington was undefeated until they left the ECC for their last game of the season and feel to Hall 11-12 in OT. They also were upset 6-11 by East Lyme in the ECC Championship but in the 16 games the Bears (from Stonington) did win, they took down a very good Guilford team, Ledyard twice, Nrowich Free Academy twice and Waterford. I think that after Saturday, the only Bears left in Class S will be from the ECC, not the NCCC.
(11) Ellington @ (3) Joel Barlow @ 430pm
-Ellington had the credentials to upset, based on seeding, Lewis Mills but they are not going to take down the Joel Barlow Falcons that beat Simsbury, Daniel Hand, Weston and New Fairfield before getting upset by them in the SWC semifinals. Barlow did lose to Wilton from the FCIAC 7-11, Guilford from the SCC 11-10 in OT (they were down 2-10 at halftime) and Newtown, the top-ranked team in ther conference, the SWC, 5-9 but it doesn't even compare to Ellington's losses to NCCC big wigs, Avon, Somers, Granby and even Suffield while also getting beat by South Windsor and Housatonic Valley in out-of-conference games. When Lewis Mills and a split with Granby Memorial are your only wins against teams over .500, you're not going to beat the likes of Joel Barlow.
PREDICTIONS: Somers by about seven goals over Old Saybrook; St. Joseph over Ledyard; Stonington over Granby Memorial; Joel Barlow over Ellington.
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